Foresight for the semiconductor industry in Taiwan

Abstract

PurposeThis paper explores the possible future business environment, industrial structure, technological transformation, and market for the semiconductor industry in Taiwan.Design/methodology/approachThis study applies the Delphi method to predict future trends in Taiwan's semiconductor industry in 2015.FindingsThe significant findings are as follows: the future business environment will focus on “industrial internationalization” and “strategic alliance”, and roughly half of Taiwan's production will move to China by 2015; the disintegrated model in Taiwan's semiconductor industry will still remain by 2015 and will require some adjustments, whereas the foundry service in Taiwan will retain its dominance globally; future core technologies in 2015 will comprise low voltage manufacturing (CMOS), High K, nanotechnology processes, and copper interconnection processes; the estimated value of IC industrial production for 2005 was US$32.1 billion, and will be US$61.0 billion in 2010 and US$108.8 billion in 2015.Originality/valueThis research can be utilized as a reference for government, academics, industry, and international investors.