Foresight—Are we looking in the right direction?

Abstract

The practice of both competitive intelligence (CI) and foresight attempt to prevent strategic surprise by noticing and attending to signals earlier rather than later. Using analogies with human vision, we examine how organizations can see, notice and attend better to their business and competitive environments. Though discarding information is a necessary part of any intelligent and/or intelligence process, the increasing use of 2020 vision statements, seemingly expressing prescient foresightful activity, can lead to tunnel vision and encourage over-focusing, looking too hard in one direction, by neglecting both context and periphery while ignoring the discarding of information that is taking place. We consider problems of blind spots, differences between passive and active vision, the privileging of foveal (focused and central) over peripheral (contextual) vision, and why we need the periphery, both visually and organizationally. Postmodern thinking can usefully inform CI or other foresightful activities so as to better see the unseen, and spot excluded voices. We conclude by suggesting serendipity as a possible approach, so as to ultimately help see with new eyes, as Proust would have it, adopting a deliberately sideways look at one's business context to enhance foresightful looking straightforward towards a or the future.