Forescating the Amount of Corn Production in North Sumatra Based on 2017 – 2021 Data Using The Single and Double Exponential Smoothing Method (Case Study of Central Bureau of Statistics of North Sumatra )

Abstract

North Sumatra Province has high potential in the management and marketing of corn (Zae Mays) crops. Cultivation of corn plants is a superior product where the largest income is obtained from the sale of commodities and their processing so that they can assist the government in improving the economy. This study aims to determine the yield of corn in North Sumatra Province in the coming year. Data collection for this study uses secondary data, namely primary data obtained from other parties which are generally made in the form of tables and diagrams. Data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics of North Sumatra for corn production in 2017 was 1,741,257 tons, corn production in 2018 was 1,710,784 tons, corn production in 2019 was 1,960,424 tons, corn production in 2020 was 1,965. 444 tons, corn production in 2021 is 1,724,398 tons. To find out the increase in corn production, the consideration and comparison of the forecasting methods needed to minimize forecast errors that aim to approach reality are the single and double exponential smoothing methods with one parameter from Brown.