Foreign trade security of Ukraine’s regions: internal and external threats under martial law

Abstract

The article examines the state of foreign trade security of Ukraine in 2013-2020. Based on the positive dynamics of the integrated indicator of foreign trade security, the compliance of foreign trade indicators with economic security criteria in most regions of Ukraine is verified. The results of calculating the integrated indicator sensitivity to changes in foreign trade security indicators identify the most common threats to foreign trade at the regional level in 2020. Based on a cluster analysis of Ukraine’s regions for foreign trade security in 2020, common features and problems of foreign trade are outlined. The pre-war state of foreign trade of the regions of each group and the peculiarities of export-import operations under martial law are analyzed. Based on the analysis of foreign trade indicators in 2022 and taking into account the factors of foreign trade security, the key threats to each group of regions during the war are identified. Russia’s aggression is the main external threat, which has a systemic nature and determines the state of the economic security of the regions. As a result of the threat of war, domestic threats are growing, caused by the inefficient structure of the regional economy and raw material exports. For the regions where the export of raw materials predominates, the main threats include the imbalance of foreign trade due to a sharp decline in exports as the result of logistics disruption, complete or partial loss of foreign markets, and increasing import dependence. In wartime, the decline in exports of high-tech goods or science-intensive services due to hostilities, destruction of enterprises and telecommunications, and loss of intellectual potential are the greatest threats to foreign trade security of regions with a significant share of high-tech products and science-intensive services.