Foreign Trade, Human Capital and Economic Growth in India under the Liberalised Trade Regime

Abstract

This study revisits trade–growth dynamics in India augmenting the role of human capital for the liberalised trade regime. The autoregressive distributed lag-bounds testing approach finds cointegrating relation of income with the different combinations of export, import, exchange rate, trade openness, education and health dimension of human capital. The long-run and short-run dynamics of such relations confirm that both export and import enhance income growth that testifies export-led and import-led growth premises. Trade openness proves detrimental to growth, while human capital spurs growth. However, the growth gains from the human capital vary across alternative measures of human capital. A battery of diagnostic tests corroborates these inferences robustly. Policy manifestation for trade promotion might be beneficial for higher economic growth in India. JEL Codes: F43, F13, F14, O24