Foreign Policy Alignment and Russia's Energy Weapon

Abstract

Abstract Scholars of international relations disagree whether trade in natural gas between Europe and Russia provides the latter with a source of foreign policy power. Because a reduction in trade of natural gas is costly for importers, the potential economic power of Russia's energy weapon could alter strategic calculations about diplomatic conflict with Russia. Consequently, we hypothesize that increases in dependence on Russian natural gas will lead to more foreign policy convergence with Russia. Using a panel of European states from 1995 to 2013 and a time series of Germany from 1979 to 2013, we find support for our argument that greater dependence on Russian natural gas correlates with more similarity in voting patterns at the United Nations General Assembly. Our research suggests that Russian natural gas imports to Europe shape broader political alignments, adding to the growing body of research on the potential ramifications of Russia's energy weapon.