Foreign Direct Investment and International Trade in WAEMU- Panel Causality and Long-term Relationship Analysis

Abstract

AbstractUsing panel data from 1990 to 2016, this paper examines the Granger causality and long-run relationship between foreign direct investment, and trade (imports, exports, and trade openness) in the West African economic and monetary union (WAEMU). This study will determine the link between international trade and foreign direct investment to the policymakers. The study follows the short-run causality, cointegration, and long-run approach. The Granger causality tests that there is causality between trade and FDI. The analysis uses Kao and Pedroni method which reveal the existence of cointegration between trade and FDI. The long-run effect tests suggested that foreign direct investment has a positive long-run effect increasing export WAEMU. The tests also indicate that foreign direct investment has a positive long-run effect spurring import and leads to more trade openness in WAEMU. Additionally, the long run estimation indicates that FDI induces to more trade openness in WAEMU. Moreover, the analysis indicates also that export and import have a positive and significant long-run effect on foreign direct investment. Furthermore, the estimation indicates that trade openness has a positive and significant impact on attracting more foreign investment in WAEMU. We explored the economic and policy implications of our analyses in the conclusions.