Abstract

The dramatic increase in the level of external debt of a large number of Third World countries has no doubt significantly affected the volume of world trade in the early 1980s. In this chapter, we examine whether, in addition, the structure of trade, i.e., the direction of trade flows, has been altered through financial constraints. The aim of the chapter is to examine the causal relationships between various global measures of structural change in bilateral trade flows and developing countries’ debt. The results are largely affirmative, and suggest that medium- and long-term projections of world trade structures will have to be based on an assessment of monetary conditions as well as relative prices and technological trends. The analysis indicates the need for an in-depth analysis of these mechanisms based on the dynamics of bilateral trade shares.

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