Forecasts on the Dark Matter Density Profiles of Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxies with Current and Future Kinematic Observations

Abstract

We forecast parameter uncertainties on the mass profile of a typical Milky Way dwarf spheroidal galaxy (dSph) using the spherical Jeans equation and Fisher matrix formalism. For a Draco-like system we show that radial velocity measurements for 1000 individual stars can constrain the mass contained within the effective radius of a dSph to within 5%. This is consistent with constraints extracted from current observational data. We compare two systems, a cusp and core, and demonstrate that a minimum sample of 100,000 (10,000) stars with both radial and proper motions measurements is required to disentangle their inner slopes at the 2σ (1σ) level. If using the log-slope measured at the half-light radius as a proxy for differentiating between a core or cusp slope, only 1000 line-of-sight and proper motions measurements are required; however, we show this choice of radius does not always unambiguously differentiate between core and cusped profiles. Once observational errors are below half the value of the intrinsic dispersion, improving the observational precision yields little change in the density profile uncertainties. The choice of priors in our profile shape analysis plays a crucial role when the number of stars in a system is less than 100 but does not affect the resulting uncertainties for larger kinematic samples. Our predicted 2D confidence regions agree well with those from a full likelihood analysis run on a mock kinematic data set taken from the Gaia Challenge, validating our Fisher predictions. Our methodology is flexible, allowing us to predict density profile uncertainties for a wide range of current and future kinematic data sets.