Forecasts of Wave-Induced Coastal Hazards in the United States Pacific Islands: Past, Present, and the Future

Martin Guiles,Melissa M Iwamoto,Volker Roeber,Fiona Langenberger,Douglas S Luther,Assaf Azouri

doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00170

Abstract

This paper summarizes the existing coastal hazard forecast methods of PacIOOS, such as wave-induced run-up, by focusing on the critical components that need to be addressed in order to improve these forecasts and make them more accurate and available to broader coastal communities. We then propose that a horizontally, two-dimensional numerical modeling approach method should be adopted for developing future wave-induced coastal forecasts. To reach a future in which real-time two-dimensional model-based forecasts are a reality, we identify existing technologies that could lead to improvements, such as: (i) more accurate, accessible and frequently updated bathymetry and topography datasets; (ii) increased computational and software capabilities; and, (iii) more accurate sea level datasets. These advances, combined with crowdsourced-based model-data validation, will result in faster and more accurate forecasting tools that could greatly benefit coastal communities in need of more efficient risk mitigation programs.

Highlights

Researchers at the University of Hawai‘i have successfully developed and implemented real-time forecasts of coastal flooding driven by remotely generated gravity waves impinging on shorelines during periods of high sea level
Run-up is considered the maximum topographic elevation the water reaches on land, and in the case of swell wave-driven run-up it is usually quantified as the elevation reached by 2% of wave bores running up the shore
One could imagine in the near future that citizen scientist networks, subscribers to crowdsourcing data collection apps, or another conduit yet to be created will be able to respond to simple requests in areas where new topography is necessary

Summary

INTRODUCTION

Researchers at the University of Hawai‘i have successfully developed and implemented real-time forecasts of coastal flooding driven by remotely generated gravity waves impinging on shorelines during periods of high sea level. One critical part of the forecast development, for both the high sea level and wave run-up forecasts, is to establish accurate and useful metrics for extreme conditions Part of this can be accomplished through historical data analysis and hindcasting, but this may not always yield thresholds that relate to the forecast user base. Around the time that the Kwajalein and Majuro forecast tools were released, we began exploring ways to accurately extend the forecasts along a coastline without being confined (in terms of statistical reliability) to one narrow beach zone This exposed one of the weaknesses of using the empirical model: for every location that a forecast was desired, a fairly extensive field program was needed.

Recent Advancements in Forecast Development

EXPECTATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR PROJECTED FORECAST DEVELOPMENT

Findings

AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS