Forecasts of preserved teeth and denture wearers among Danish adults early in the next century.

Abstract

To assist in the planning of oral health services, forecasts were made and goals specified with regard to the numbers of preserved teeth and subjects wearing full or partial dentures among Danish adults in 1992 and 2002. Forecasting was based on existing data, viz. a survey in 1982, including clinical examination, of a representative sample of 20-80-yr-olds (n = 2548), on register data from the National Health Insurance, and survival rates. By combining information from these sources, an increase was estimated in number of preserved teeth among 20-99-yr-olds from 68 million in 1982 to 82 and 92 million in 1992 and 2002, respectively. Correspondingly, a 28% increase in the mean number of remaining teeth was proposed as a goal for the year 2002. A decrease was estimated in the number of denture wearers, from 1.4 million in 1982 to 1.07 and 0.74 million in 1992 and 2002, respectively. The corresponding goal was specified as a 50% reduction in the proportion of denture wearers in 2002. In the middle aged and older part of the population the increasing number of remaining teeth may be expected to imply considerable needs for professional care even in the beginning of the next century.