Forecasts of employment in the dental sector to 1990

Abstract

Employment levels of dentists, dental assistants, and dental office clerical workers in the private sector of the U.S. economy through 1990 are forecast with a macro-econometric model of the dental sector. The model considers the major economic forces impacting on the dental care market including the rate of growth of the population and national income, the growth of dental service prepayment, and technological innovation in the practice of dentistry. Although the total hours of auxiliary personnel utilized in the private sector will follow an upward trend, the average utilization of auxiliaries per dentist will decline. Despite a significant increase in demand for dental services generated by economic growth and continued spread of prepayment, growth of productive capacity will exceed the growth of demand for services if the projected increases in the national stock of dentists is realized, and if the historical rate of technological progress is maintained in dental practice. Dentists will tend to substitute their own time for that of auxiliaries as the wage rates of auxiliaries increase, while competitive pressures operate to prevent increases in the real prices of dental services. Total dental service production and dentists' real incomes will follow an upward trend.