Abstract
Robust method of short-term forecast of Covid-19 epidemic in small administrative units (districts) is proposed. By identifying similar sections of epidemic evolutions in the past it is possible to obtain short-term forecast of epidemic in given district. Examples of one and two-weeks forecasts for three cities in Poland during third epidemic wave (March and April 2021) are shown. Difference between epidemic evolutions in third wave and previous waves caused by Covid B.1.1.7 UK variant is observed. Proposed algorithm allows one to manage epidemic locally by entering or releasing anti-Covid restrictions in groups of small administrative units.
Highlights
IntroductionIn 2020 and first half of 2021 the Covid-19 epidemic in Poland proceeded in three main waves
In this work we propose method for a short-time forecasting of Covid-19 epidemic which is robust in respect to above difficulties
In this work we introduced a robust algorithm forecasting Covid-19 epidemic evolution
Summary
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