FORECASTING WORK OF INTENSIVE CARE UNIT ON THE BASIS OF STATISTICAL SIMULATION

Abstract

The profound economic transformations taking place in Russia, the transition of health care to new management mechanisms, and the focus on insurance medicine give special actuality to improving the operational management of medical and prophylactic institutions and related services. Given the complexity of the system under study, a mathematic simulation was applied. Study purpose: To increase the efficiency of the resuscitation and intensive care unit through possible planning, based on studying the features of the functioning of this type units. Methods: A method of statistical simulation is proposed as a particular method of mathematical modeling for studying the functioning of the resuscitation and intensive care unit, which was not previously used in this direction. Results: During the work, the intensive care unit no. 2 of the Samara Regional Clinical Hospital named after V.D. Seredavin and the business process of the department’s functioning were studied, an averaged process was selected, a statistical study of the business process was carried out, and the distribution laws were identified and evaluated. Some simulation algorithms were developed based on a random number generator for individual random variables, and some statistical indicators were determined, which were calculated during implementation of all these algorithms. Using the specialized AnyLogic tool, we managed to develop a model of resuscitation and intensive care unit work, the number of runs was determined and considered in the program for the possibility of conducting experiments and comparing the data received. An experiment was performed on a model with changing various input data. The data obtained were analyzed, including using specialized software, and some consistent patterns were identified. Practical significance: Directions for optimizing the work of the department were proposed, and mathematical formulas were suggested for predicting and monitoring the operation of an intensive care unit.