Forecasting Wind Generation, Uncertainty and Reserve Requirement on the Irish Power System Using an Ensemble Prediction System

Abstract

The ability to quantify forecast uncertainty is critical to safe, efficient and economical operation of the power system, given the rapidly increasing wind penetration into the relatively small synchronous Irish system (over 1.5 GW of wind in an all-island system with a peak demand of less than only 7 GW). An ensemble prediction system has been employed for the forecasting of generation for wind farms in the Republic of Ireland, as well as for the quantification of the forecast uncertainty at each farm. Results indicate the forecast (mean absolute) error for the total wind generation capacity (over the 51 wind farms studied) was less than 7% (normalised to installed capacity). Single-site forecast errors are typically almost twice as much as this, which highlights the benefits of regional, aggregated wind generation forecasting for safe and efficient power system operations.