Forecasting variance of NiftyIT index with RNN and DNN

Abstract

A time series is an order of observations engaged serially in time. The prime objective of time series analysis is to build mathematical models that provide reasonable descriptions from training data. The goal of time series analysis is to forecast the forthcoming values of a series based on the history of the same series. Forecasting of stock markets is a thought-provoking problem because of the number of possible variables as well as volatile noise that may contribute to the prices of the stock. However, the capability to analyze stock market leanings could be vital to investors, traders and researchers, hence has been of continued interest. Plentiful arithmetical and machine learning practices have been discovered for stock analysis and forecasting/prediction. In this paper, we perform a comparative study on two very capable artificial neural network models i) Deep Neural Network (DNN) and ii) Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) a type of recurrent neural network (RNN) in predicting the daily variance of NIFTYIT in BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange) and NSE (National Stock Exchange) markets. DNN was chosen due to its capability to handle complex data with substantial performance and better generalization without being saturated. LSTM model was decided, as it contains intermediary memory which can hold the historic patterns and occurrence of the next prediction depends on the values that preceded it. With both networks, measures were taken to reduce overfitting. Daily predictions of the NIFTYIT index were made to test the generalizability of the models. Both networks performed well at making daily predictions, and both generalized admirably to make daily predictions of the NiftyIT data. The LSTM-RNN outpaced the DNN in terms of forecasting and thus, grips more potential for making longer-term estimates.