Abstract
We propose a method to forecast Value-Added Tax (VAT) revenue for Indonesia government using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Box-Jenkins method. We experimented the ARIMA Box-Jenkins method using time-series analysis of VAT revenue data of two Tax Offices of Directorate General of Taxes (DGT) from the last five years. The result shows that it resembles the real VAT revenue more closely than when compared to the actual VAT target by Indonesia government. We then argue that this result may be used as a fail-safe tax revenue target, that can work as a tool to better measure DGT performance.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
