FORECASTING THE VALUE OF INDONESIA'S OIL AND GAS IMPORTS USING SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE MODEL

Abstract

The value of Indonesia's oil and gas imports is a combination of the value of crude oil (petroleum), oil and natural gas products. Throughout 2021, the value of Indonesia's oil and gas imports reach US$ 25.53 billion or the equivalent of 382.95 trillion rupiah (estimated at US$ 1 = Rp. 15,000.00). The high demand for petroleum in Indonesia is due to the fact that petroleum is the main source of energy for daily life needs, especially for industrial, transportation and household needs. The requirment for oil imports is expected to increase along with the growth in Indonesia's population. Therefore, a step is needed to prevent an increase in the value of oil and gas imports in the coming period. One method of analysis that can be used is forecasting using the time series method with the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. The SARIMA model is a time series method with data that has a seasonal pattern and the forecasting results will get a pattern similar to the previous data. The data used is data on the monthly value of oil and gas imports from January 2005 to December 2022 with totaling 216 data. This research aims to find the best model and predict the value of Indonesia's oil and gas imports in the next 12 periods with data test in 4 periods (Januari to April 2023). The best model for the results of this research is (2, 1, 0)(0, 1, 1)43 with a MAPE value of 13.90%. Based on the accuracy of the MAPE value, this percentage has good quality forecasting results.