Forecasting the Timing of Floral Initiation in Wild Chickpeas under Climate Change

Abstract

Precise prediction of the timing of floral initiation helps breeders create new varieties that can achieve maximum efficiency under the influence of a changing climate. A previously constructed model was used to compare the impact of daily weather parameters on the flowering time of wild varieties of chickpeas that were collected in different geographic locations in Turkey. We found that plants from the high altitude areas, unlike plant samples from lower altitudes, can adapt to lower temperatures and longer days. Forecasts of changes in time to flowering in the studied wild chickpea varieties were made with the model and climate change predictions using MarkSim software to generate daily weather data for Ankara. The mean thresholds for the sowing flowering period for the 2020–2039, 2040–2059, and 2060–2080 time periods shifted for 21 combinations of the scenarios of plant growth and development and plant collecting sites, accounting for approximately half of the 40 cases, thereby suggesting a moderate effect of climate change on flowering time in the studied varieties.