Forecasting the Territorial-Spatial Development of the System of Children’s Medical Complexes in Ukraine

Abstract

Abstract The forecast development prediction in time-space of the urban system of pediatric treatment facilities of Ukraine is given at the national-territorial level, based on three complementary information sources for the future: the author's structure of the urban system of healthcare, its components, and promising types of medical institutions; retrospective analysis and patterns of organization and development of the urban system of medical institutions in the leading countries of the world, which indicate the general direction of extrapolation of systems; projected population of Ukraine (optimistic, optimal and pessimistic options), which are obtained through many years of statistical research. The paper presents the results of modeling, which demonstrate the forecast scenarios for the system development of pediatric treatment facilities at the national level of the urban network of primary care facilities and hospital networks. The model’s scenarios contain time prospects of the forecast for 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, and 2100. The probable non-linear deviations characteristic of the space-time development of the open system and many internal and external probable points of system bifurcations are considered. The research should be challenging and effective for international scientists who study the range of issues of the urban and spatial development of urban systems, their forecast models, and deployment scenarios. The study is also valuable for countries that face the problems of stable depopulation, have an ineffective and cumbersome healthcare system, and are in the process of looking for ways to reform the medical system in an urban planning context.