Forecasting the sunspot maximum through an analysis of geomagnetic activity

Abstract

In the present work we show that it is possible to predict the maximum sunspot number for a particular solar cycle from the maximum value of the solar dipole magnetic field of the previous cycle. Based on the measured dipole field maximum, we determine the geomagnetic activity in the upcoming solar minimum during the intervals when the Earth is not exposed to CME and HSS influences. The physical meaning of the relationship between the geomagnetic activity in the solar activity minimum and the maximum value of the solar dipole magnetic field is that the basic factor determining the geomagnetic activity during the minimum is not the heliospheric current sheet thickness but the physical parameters of the slow solar wind in this period.Then, based on the established relationship between the average geomagnetic activity at the specified minimum and the next solar maximum, we can predict the sunspot maximum of the next solar cycle.