Abstract
The world’s economic development depends on access to cheap energy sources. So far, energy has been obtained mainly from conventional sources like coal, gas and oil. Negative climate changes related to the high emissions of the economy based on the combustion of hydrocarbons and the growing public awareness have made it necessary to look for new ecological energy sources. This condition can be met by renewable energy sources. Both social pressure and international activities force changes in the structure of sources from which energy is produced. This also applies to the European Union countries, including Poland. There are no scientific studies in the area of forecasting energy production from renewable energy sources for Poland. Therefore, it is reasonable to investigate this subject since such a forecast can have a significant impact on investment decisions in the energy sector. At the same time, it must be as reliable as possible. That is why a modern method was used for this purpose, which undoubtedly involves artificial neural networks. The following article presents the results of the analysis of energy production from renewable energy sources in Poland and the forecasts for this production until 2025. Artificial neural networks were used to make the forecast. The analysis covered eight main sources from which this energy is produced in Poland. Based on the production volume since 1990, predicted volumes of renewable energy sources until 2025 were determined. These forecasts were prepared for all studied renewable energy sources. Renewable energy production plans and their share in total energy consumption in Poland were also examined and included in climate plans. The research was carried out using artificial neural networks. The results should be an important source of information on the effects of implementing climate policies in Poland. They should also be utilized to develop action plans to achieve the objectives of the European Green Deal strategy.
Highlights
One of the basic factors that has a significant impact on the development of the world economy and the entire civilization is access to large amounts of cheap energy
In order to forecast energy production from renewable energy sources (RES) by 2025, a specific network structure was adopted, and it consists of an input layer, a hidden layer and an output layer
In the context of climate change observed for many years, caused by greenhouse gas and other harmful substance emissions, the use of conventional energy sources should become an absolute priority of the energy and climate policy of the European Union (EU) countries, including Poland
Summary
One of the basic factors that has a significant impact on the development of the world economy and the entire civilization is access to large amounts of cheap energy. Energy is one of the basic resources that determine economic, social and political development of individual countries and regions [1,2,3,4,5,6,7]. In order to meet these needs, especially by developing countries, energy produced from conventional sources is essential. Such production generates huge amounts of harmful substances emitted into the environment [8,9].
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