Forecasting the spread of raccoon rabies using a purpose-specific group decision- making process

Abstract

Abstract : The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and USDA Wildlife Services (WS) have been involved in an oral rabies vaccination (ORV) program for raccoons ( Procyon lotor ) that has slowed the westward spread of raccoon rabies. The objective of this study was to forecast the spread of the disease if an ORV zone was not maintained. A group decision-making process was designed to address the forecasting problem and was implemented using a group of 15 experts and 4 support personnel at a meeting at the USDA National Wildlife Research Center. Ten expansion regions were constructed that described the spread of disease at 2-year intervals. This forecast may provide for more accurate cost-benefit analysis of the ORV barrier. Key words : forecast, human–wildlife conflict, oral rabies vaccination, Procyon lotor , raccoon, rabies, United States, zoonotic disease Worldwide, >55,000 people are estimated to die from rabies each year (World Health Organization 2013). Most of these deaths occur in Africa and Asia where canine rabies virus variants have not been controlled (World Health Organization 2004). However, in the United States, canine rabies virus variant transmission has been eliminated, and wildlife are now the primary reservoir of rabies. In 2010, wildlife accounted for approximately 92% of all reported rabid animals in the United States (Blanton et al. 2011). The raccoon (