Abstract
The increasing spread of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, in Europe and US raises public health concern due to the species competence to transmit several exotic human arboviruses, among which dengue, chikungunya and Zika, and urges the development of suitable modeling approach to forecast the spatial and temporal distribution of the mosquito. Here we developed a dynamical species distribution modeling approach forecasting Ae. albopictus eggs abundance at high spatial (0.01 degree WGS84) and temporal (weekly) resolution over 10 Balkan countries, using temperature times series of Modis data products and altitude as input predictors. The model was satisfactorily calibrated and validated over Albania based observed eggs abundance data weekly monitored during three years. For a given week of the year, eggs abundance was mainly predicted by the number of eggs and the mean temperature recorded in the preceding weeks. That is, results are in agreement with the biological cycle of the mosquito, reflecting the effect temperature on eggs spawning, maturation and hatching. The model, seeded by initial egg values derived from a second model, was then used to forecast the spatial and temporal distribution of eggs abundance over the selected Balkan countries, weekly in 2011, 2012 and 2013. The present study is a baseline to develop an easy-handling forecasting model able to provide information useful for promoting active surveillance and possibly prevention of Ae. albopictus colonization in presently non-infested areas in the Balkans as well as in other temperate regions.
Highlights
In the last decade, the increasing spread of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, in Europe and US has raised public health concern, as the species is involved in the transmission of several human arboviruses among which dengue, chikungunya and Zika [1,2,3,4]
The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus, originating from Asia, in the last decade has spread in many regions in Europe and US
Beside the nuisance problem causing to the citizens during the day, this species has raised public health concern, due to its strict association with humans and anthropic habitats, its expanding distribution and its capacities to transmit several human arboviruses
Summary
The increasing spread of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, in Europe and US has raised public health concern, as the species is involved in the transmission of several human arboviruses among which dengue, chikungunya and Zika [1,2,3,4]. Ae. albopictus is widespread and commonly found in Albania, even in tiny isolated villages and sites in high altitude including beech forest up to 1200m. The role of the environmental factors in the spread and temporal dynamics of Ae. albopictus has been investigated in both laboratory and field work conditions [8]. Some other environmental factors related to land cover, have been shown to be statistically associated with high habitat suitability for Ae. albopictus larval breeding site, through the landscape structure [13]
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