FORECASTING THE RUNOFF ON RIVERS OF THE DNISTER RIVER BASIN ACCORDING TO THE REMO NUMERIC CLIMATIC MODEL

Vasyl Grebin Vasyl Grebin

doi:10.31435/rsglobal_ws/30092018/6131

Vasyl Grebin Vasyl Grebin

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.31435/rsglobal_ws/30092018/6131

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Journal: World Science	Publication Date: Sep 30, 2018
Citations: 1	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv

Abstract

   This article presents the results of forecasting of future changes in water runoff in the basin of the Dnister River. The forecast is made until the year 2100 in 30-year periods. For forecasting, the data from the network of hydrological stations at Dnister and its affluents. After conducting the verification (testing) of the selected REMO climatic model, an adjustment coefficient was developed and its use was proposed when forecasting the runoff. The results of the forecast have shown the decrease in the value of the runoff modulus for each of the forecasted periods. The deviation of forecasted runoff rates from the control period (1970-2000) with the use of the coefficient for the period 2011-2040 was (in average for the basin) 0.81 l/s*km2 (9%); for the period 2041-2070 it was 0.96 l/s*km2 (11%); for the period 2071-2100 it was 0.88 l/s*km2 (10%).  

Highlights

As of today, the climate change is a confirmed fact, in consequence of which a question arises how the quantity and the quality of water in resources will change in years to come
For forecasting the runoff rate in the future, the REMO regional numeric model was used in our study
In the process of the verification of the veracity of obtained model values of the runoff modulus, we proposed to use an adjustment coefficient (Ca) which shows what fold the modeled monthly value of runoff has to be decreased or increased for hydrological stations in the basin of Dnister

Summary

Introduction

The climate change is a confirmed fact, in consequence of which a question arises how the quantity and the quality of water in resources will change in years to come. For forecasting the runoff rate in the future, the REMO regional numeric model was used in our study. It was developed in Max Plank Meteorology Institute (Hamburg) [6]. The selected network of hydrological stations fully covers the basin of Dnister and characterizes the conditions of formation of the water runoff of rivers in the entire basin territory in a good way [10].

28 Kalius River

Conclusions

Water Resources