Forecasting the rise of the Front National during the 2014 municipal elections

Abstract

This article develops an electoral forecasting model for the extreme-right vote share in France during the 2014 municipal elections. On the basis of data gathered between 1998 and 2014 from a sample of 56 cities where the Front National(FN) has always presented candidates for municipal office, the model anticipated a rise in the FN’s share of the vote during the 2014 municipal elections. Controlling for political context through election type, FN popularity and electoral dynamics in addition to the criminality rate, this article adds to previous extreme-right forecasting models demonstrating that the FN’s vote share is not at all unpredictable even in the case of local elections.