Forecasting the Poverty Rates using Holt’s Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

As a developing country with many provinces, Indonesia has a poverty problem that needs to be overcome. This research aimed to predict the poverty level in the Special Region of Yogyakarta using poverty data provided by the Central Statistics Agency for the Special Region of Yogyakarta. The method used in this research was Holt exponential smoothing to predict poverty levels in Yogyakarta City and four districts (Sleman, Bantul, Kulon Progo, and Gunungkidul) in this province. Three performances were measured to evaluate forecast results: sum squared error, mean squared error, and root mean squared error. The research results showed that the best configuration for the cities of Yogyakarta and Bantul is , = 0.9, 0.4; Kulon Progo and Gunungkidul are , = 0.9, 0.9; and Sleman are , = 0.9, 0.6. The forecasting results for 2022 to 2024, using a 95% confidence interval, showed that the poverty rate will increase in every city and district in the Special Region of Yogyakarta.