Forecasting the potential distribution of Spodoptera exigua and S. littoralis (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) in Iran

Abstract

• Spodoptera exigua and S. littoralis are important agricultural pests in Iran. • The former is widely distributed; while the latter has a limited distribution. • Precipitation and temperature in coldest months mainly affecting their distribution. • There is a moderate niche overlap between these two species in Iran. The beet armyworm, Spodoptera exigua (Hübner, 1808) and the Egyptian cotton leafworm, S. littoralis (Boisduval, 1833), are amongst the most notorious agricultural pest species in Iran. Spodoptera exigua is considered a serious pest of different crops, whereas S. littoralis is known as an important pest of cotton. In this paper, the potential distribution areas of these species in Iran and the important climatic factors affecting their distribution were predicted using the MaxEnt model and the ArcGIS. The results indicate that the main environmental variables contributing to S. exigua ’s distribution were precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19), average wind speed in April (wind4), and annual precipitation (bio12). Also, minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11), altitude and average wind speed in May (wind5) were dominant climatic factors that affected the potential distribution of S. littoralis . These species overlapped in most parts of coastal areas in the southern and northern parts of Iran, with an average overlapping range of 33.2%. Considering their preferred host plants in Iran, it is necessary to strengthen biosurveillance programes and management of these two species in their suitable areas to prevent further invasion, which endangers agricultural security.