Abstract
Many people die on the streets every year. The value is declining year by year, but there are still plenty of them. Although the COVID-19 pandemic reduced the number of traffic accidents, it is still very high. For this reason, in order to do everything possible to minimize the number of road accidents, it is important to know the federal states with the most road accidents and what the accident forecast is for the next few years. The purpose of this article is to predict the number of road accidents by state in Poland. The survey was divided into two parts. The first is an analysis of the annual data of police statistics on the number of road accidents in Poland for the period 2000–2021, upon the prediction of the number of traffic accidents from 2022 to 2031 was decided. The second part of the study looked at monthly data from 2000 to 2021. Again, the forecasts analyzed were determined for the period from January 2022 to December 2023. The results of this study indicate that a decrease in the number of accidents is also expected in the coming years, which becomes especially clear when analyzing the annual data. It is worth noting that the prevailing COVID-19 pandemic has distorted the results obtained. The study was performed in MS Excel using the selected propensity model.
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