Forecasting the number of road accidents in Poland depending on weather conditions and COVID‐19

Abstract

<p>COVID‐19 fundamentally changed the way that people travel by road in Poland and throughout the world. The lack of mobility at the period, especially during the beginning of the epidemic, had a significant impact on the number of traffic accidents. The goals of this study are to forecast the number of accidents on the basis of weather in Poland and to assess how the COVID‐19 epidemic has affected that number. For this objective, annual statistics on weather‐related traffic accidents were acquired and evaluated. Based on previous information from police records, the number of traffic accidents was also forecasted for pandemic and non-pandemic variants in order to assess the impact of the pandemic. The number of traffic accidents in Poland was predicted using specific time series models and exponential models in relation to the weather. There is a decrease in the number of traffic accidents during the pandemic. Traffic accidents were on average 22% fewer in 2020 than they were in 2019, and by 2021, the difference was over 24%. When it snows or hails, this is extremely clear. This time period mostly saw the outbreak of the pandemic. The majority of traffic accidents occur when the weather is good. When the weather is bad, drivers are more cautious on the road. Prediction of traffic accidents is important for future planning and measures. The problem of estimating the number of traffic accidents, however, is not one that academics are particularly fond of.</p>