FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF FOREIGN TOURISM IN BALI USING THE HYBRID HOLT-WINTERS-ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK METHOD

Abstract

Bali was one of the destinations frequently visited by tourists because it had natural beauty, especially in the tourism sector. The number of foreign tourists coming to Bali until 2019 had increased, but there had been a very significant decrease in 2020. Forecasting the number of tourists coming to Bali in the future was needed to provide input or recommendations to the government and business people in anticipating decisions taken in the process of developing the tourism sector in Bali. One of the forecasting methods that can be used was the Holt-Winters method. The Holt-Winters method was part of Exponential Smoothing which is based on smoothing stationary, trend and seasonal elements. However, the Holt-Winters method can only capture linear patterns, so a method was needed that can capture non-linear patterns. The Artificial Neural Network method was proposed to overcome the shortcomings of the Holt-Winters Method. This research was focused on the number of foreign tourists visiting Bali using the Hybrid Holt Winters-Artificial Neural Network method. The results showed that the data on the number of foreign tourists fluctuated every month. The best method for predicting the number of foreign tourists was the Hybrid Holt-Winters (α = 0.987, β = 0.000001, and γ = 1)-Artificial Neural Network (12-15-1) because it has the best accuracy as indicated by the MAD value of 0.036684, MSE 0.01098698 and MAPE 6.30417%.