FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF AIRPLANE PASSENGERS USING HOLT WINTER'S EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD AND EXTREME LEARNING MACHINE METHOD

Abstract

Airplanes provide comfort and speed for their users, especially for those who have limited time. The number of passengers has continued to increase in the last few months at Ahmad Yani International Airport, so a forecast is needed in making decisions to predict the number of passengers in order to maximize existing performance. The data used is secondary data on the number of airplane passengers at Ahmad Yani International Airport from 2012 to 2022 obtained from PT Angkasa Pura 1 (Persero). The Holt Winters Exponential Smoothing method is used because it aligns with the data pattern that includes trends and seasonality in the research, and it has a low level of accuracy. In this study also used the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) method, apart from being a relatively new method, it has a fast learning speed and has low accuracy. This study aims to predict the number of airplane passengers at Ahmad Yani International Airport in Semarang using the Holt Winters Exponential Smoothing and ELM methods. The results of the analysis show that the MAPE value in the Holt Winters Exponential Smoothing method is 8,18% and in the ELM method using 12 input neurons and 43 neurons in the hidden layer, a MAPE of 6,04% is obtained. so that the ELM method is the right method for predicting the number of airplane passengers at Ahmad Yani International Airport in Semarang.