Forecasting the number of airplane passengers uses the double and the triple exponential smoothing method

Abstract

Forecasting is needed to increase capacity and infrastructure, and also to improve the quality and quantity of the airport, especially at Aji Pangeran Tumenggung Pranoto Samarinda’s airport. The forecasting method is very diverse. It is difficult to forecast the number of passengers in each period. This is very important to compare the accuracy of the forecasting number of passengers and how to find out the best method to produce the forecasting value. This research uses the mean square error to measure the accuracy of double exponential smoothing and the triple exponential smoothing. The results of this research found the accuracy level between double exponential smoothing and triple exponential smoothing that produced the best forecasting value. MSE error calculation uses alpha constant values 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7 and 0.9. The best result is the double exponential smoothing method of alpha value 0.9 with an error value of 20522138,748.