Forecasting the need for palliative and hospice care in Ukraine for 2021–2022

Abstract

Calculating the need for palliative and hospice care (PHC) is one of the most important aspects of planning national and regional budgets in the field of healthcare for terminally ill patients. According to our calculations, made in accordance with the methodology of the Ukrainian Center for Public Data, in 2018–2020 such a need gradually decreased both among the adult population and among children (from 258,207 in 2018 to 213,739 in 2020 among adults, and from 65,906 to 49,000 among children respectively). However, according to the calculation, the need was still several times higher than the assistance financed by the National Health Service of Ukraine (NHSHU) according to the applications of hospitals submitted to the NHSHU. The conducted research made it possible to clarify the calculation we made earlier and perform forecasting using the trend method for 2021 and 2022. Taking into account the downward trend in need, in 2021 the projected need was 194,537 among adults and 48,261 among children. In 2022, the projected need was 172,303 among adults and 45,517 among children. The marked gradual decrease in both the calculated (in 2018–2020) and predicted (in 2021 and 2022) need for PHC for adults and children, which, unfortunately, we do not associate with the decrease in morbidity associated with the establishment of palliative diagnoses, but with a decrease in the quality of the collection of medical statistical information, on which the calculation of the need for medical assistance is based. The analysis of the forecasting results can be refined in the future according to the forecasts of the number of diseases among adults and children, respectively, for the following years for diseases that correspond to the palliative diagnoses of the calculation. The performed forecasting is the basis for planning the financing of the health care sector. Keywords: palliative and hospice care for children, palliative and hospice care for adults, trend forecasting.