Forecasting the national electric vehicle markets development

Abstract

The problem of forecasting the development of national electric vehicle markets in the context of the global trend of energy transition is considered. The urgency of the problem is due to the fact that the development of the electric vehicle market plays an important role in the process of replacing traditional energy sources with renewable sources. At the same time, forecasts for the development of national electric vehicle markets are often characterized by significant errors, which necessitates the development of reliable forecasting methods that take into account regional characteristics. To solve this problem, a multi-trend approach to building a mixed trend for the volume of electric vehicles and their share in the car market is proposed, which is based on modeling the development trend of the national market in the form of a linear combination of logistic, linear and exponential trends with weight coefficients depending on the degree of deviation trends from actual data. Based on the proposed modification of this method, forecasts of the development of the electric vehicle market for ten countries for the period 2018–2019 were made, which showed high reliability. A forecast for the period 2020–2024 has also been developed. It is shown that the reason for forecast errors is often the desire to use the logistic curve as a universal analysis tool without taking into account the peculiarities of the dynamics of the development of national electric vehicle markets.