Forecasting the Location of Future Earthquakes Based on the Pattern Informatics in the Western Anatolian Part of Turkey

Abstract

Main goal of this study is to create a forecast map based on the pattern informatics. The composite forecast method is applied for creating potential maps for future strong earthquakes for the forecast time period from January 1, 2013 to January 1, 2023 in the Western Anatolian part of Turkey. Earthquake catalogue containing 71914 earthquakes with magnitudes between 1.0 and 6.7 since 1970 is compiled from Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute. The earthquakes of magnitude equal to or larger than the lower cut-off magnitude Mc=3.5 with depth shallower than 40 km dated from January 1, 1970 to January 1, 2013 are selected for the analyses. The combined forecasting map is prepared in order to detect the location of future strong earthquakes in the Aegean Extension region of Turkey during the time period January 1, 2013- January 1, 2023. Some forecasted areas on the Western Anatolian region are detected: around Simav and Soma grabens, junction of Gediz, Kucuk Menderes and Buyuk Menderes grabens, including Acigol, Dinar, Civril faults and Sandikli-Dombayova grabens, around Marmara, Koycegiz, Fethiye faults, around Aliaga-Dumlupinar faults.