Forecasting the Industry Future Through Timelines and Wild Cards: The Case of Textile and Apparel Industry

Abstract

Manufacturing today is undergoing fast and fundamental changes due to the introduction of Industry 4.0 technologies. Still, the effects of their applications on the global economic and social structure (in terms of risks and benefits) are highly uncertain. This paper is aimed to suggest a special methodology for conducting industry foresight based on timelines construction, which reflects future vision of technological development, and wild cards detection, which represents an advanced technique for technological trends risk management. In this way, we analyze the existing practices of timelines building and wild cards analysis for industry purposes in the academic literature, and suggest own methodology for conducting industry foresight by using these tools. To demonstrate its application, we choose a particular industry with great potential for technological innovation and high degree of uncertainty – the textile and apparel industry. Finally, we discuss future development of this industry at a national level in the context of global technological trends