Abstract
This study aimed to predict the incidence of mumps using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, and provide theoretical evidence for early warning prevention and control in Zibo City, Shandong Province, China. Monthly mumps data from Zibo City gathered between 2005 and 2013 were used as a training set to construct a SARIMA model, and the monthly mumps in 2014 were defined as a test set for the model. From 2005 to 2014, a total of 8722 cases of mumps were reported in Zibo City; the male-to-female ratio of cases was 1.85:1, the age group of 1–20 years old accounted for 94.05% of all reported cases, and students made up the largest proportion (65.89%). The main serious endemic areas of mumps were located in Huantai County, Linzi District, and Boshan District of Zibo City. There were two epidemic peaks from April to July and from October to January in next year. The fitted model SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12 was established (AIC = 157.528), which has high validity and reasonability. The SARIMA model fitted dynamic changes of mumps in Zibo City well. It can be used for short-term forecasting and early warning of mumps.
Highlights
Mumps is an acute respiratory infectious disease caused by the mumps virus and characterized by the inflammation of the parotid or other salivary gland
During this study (2005–2014), a total of 8722 mumps cases were reported in Zibo City, 3.1
Mumps mostly occur within the ages of 0–80 years, while thewere agereported group of
Summary
Mumps is an acute respiratory infectious disease caused by the mumps virus and characterized by the inflammation of the parotid or other salivary gland. Most cases of mumps are mild and self-limited, but some serious complications can occur when the virus invaded various glandular tissue, such as the nervous system, liver, kidney and heart. 10% of mumps cases develop complications [3], with orchitis (testicular inflammation) and aseptic meningitis being the most common [1,4]. A person would develop symptoms after direct contact with mumps patients after about two to three weeks. The disease is generally transmitted through the respiratory tract by direct contact, droplets, and saliva inhalation; the widespread non-immunized population are susceptible [5]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callMore From: International journal of environmental research and public health
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
