Forecasting the incidence of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis in Chongqing: a time series analysis.

Hongfang Qiu,Mengliang Ye,Hua Zhu,Dan Jing,Ling Hu,Dewei Zeng,Jing Yi

doi:10.1017/s095026882000182x

Abstract

Acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis is a highly contagious eye disease, the prediction of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis is very important to prevent and grasp its development trend. We use the exponential smoothing model and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to analyse and predict. The monthly incidence data from 2004 to 2017 were used to fit two models, the actual incidence of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis in 2018 was used to validate the model. Finally, the prediction effect of exponential smoothing is best, the mean square error and the mean absolute percentage error were 0.0152 and 0.1871, respectively. In addition, the incidence of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis in Chongqing had a seasonal trend characteristic, with the peak period from June to September each year.

Highlights

Acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) is a highly infective eye disease, which is mainly caused by either enterovirus 70 (EV70) or coxsackievirus A24 (CVA24) infection [1, 2]
This study reported 30 686 AHC cases in the past 15 years (2004– 2018), in Chongqing, including 18 121 males and 12 565 females, and a male-to-female ratio of 1.44:1
AHC mostly occur within the ages of 10–19 years, what is more, the age group of 10–19 accounted for the 62.69% of all reported cases

Summary

Introduction

Acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) is a highly infective eye disease, which is mainly caused by either enterovirus 70 (EV70) or coxsackievirus A24 (CVA24) infection [1, 2]. The symptoms appear within 2 days after direct contact with the source of infection [7], and the incidence of AHC is related to temperature and humidity [8]. In China, AHC is defined as a notifiable infectious disease [9]. It is a common eye infection disease in our country and has been reported in many cities, the incidence of AHC in Chongqing ranks the top 5 in China [10]. Modelling and forecasting of the incidence of AHC provide a basis for developing policies and interventions

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion