Forecasting the GDP per Capita for Egypt and Saudi Arabia Using ARIMA Models

Abstract

Annual time series data is used to forecast GDP per capita using the Box-Jenkins Autoregressive-Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA) model for the Egyptian and Saudi Arabian economies. The fitted ARIMA model is tested for per capita GDP forecasting of Egypt and of Saudi Arabia for the next ten years. Conclusions convey that the most accurate statistical model as in previous literature that forecast GDP per capita for Egypt and for Saudi Arabia is ARIMA (1,1,2) and ARIMA (1,1,1) respectively. The diagnostic tests reveal that the two models presented individually are both stable and reliable.