Forecasting the favorable growth conditions and suitable regions for chicory (Cichorium intybus L.) on the Qinghai plateau under current climatic conditions

Abstract

The Qinghai plateau has long grappled with a host of issues, such as grassland overloading and a severe shortage of forage supply, significantly jeopardizing the sustainable development of animal husbandry. Chicory (Cichorium intybus L.) has been regarded as an ideal and sustainable supplemental or alternative feed for livestock. To introduce this high-quality forage grass and enhance pasture resources on the Qinghai Plateau. We explored the adaptability of chicory on the Qinghai Plateau through 2384 chicory distribution records, 8 major environmental variables, and 5 cultivation validation pilots using the Maxent model and actual cultivation planting. The results emphasized that the primary environmental factors affecting the suitable areas for chicory included the precipitation of the driest month, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and temperature of the coldest month. The regions with high and medium suitability for chicory cultivation are predominantly situated in the eastern, central, and southern areas of Qinghai. The high suitable area covers 29,479 km2, while the medium suitable area extends over 85,090 km2, and the arable land appropriate for chicory cultivation encompasses approximately 40.45 × 104 hm2, constituting 71.7% of the province's arable land. Moreover, practical chicory cultivation across different arable zones revealed that growth and yield in high arable regions significantly outperformed those in medium arable zones. We developed a multivariate linear regression (MLR) model, which identified annual precipitation (AP), evaporation (E), and sunshine duration (SD) as the key climatic factors influencing chicory yield on the Qinghai plateau. These findings furnish a theoretical foundation for the establishment of high-yield, high-efficiency cultivation systems, digital production management, and the future promotion of chicory cultivation on the Qinghai plateau.