Abstract
The methodical approach to forecasting of ecological risk and the outcome of the impact of harmful substances on the environment is presented in the event of an accident at chemical enterprises. The application of these solutions in the design of industrial facilities will allow for the provision of measures and methods to prevent a potential threat with the establishment of the amount of permissible damage not exceeding environmental and socioeconomic standards. The risk assessment for the environment, the facility personnel and the population living in the nearest area is based on the methods of reliability theory, probability theory and mathematical statistics. Integration of the theory of reliability and mathematical statistics makes it possible to implement approaches to determine the quantitative assessment of the probability of implementing dangerous factors using the “event tree”. Quantitative assessment of the emission of harmful substances as a result of an accident at a hazardous facility suggests possible ways to achieve the maximum permissible value of their surface concentration. To make a rational decision, it is necessary to predict and assess the permissible risk of damage in case of accidents, in which case it can be concluded that the chosen purification method is effective.
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