Forecasting the Energy-related CO2 Emissions of Turkey Using a Grey Prediction Model

Abstract

As one of the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have drawn great academic and scientific attention over the last decades. With the economic development and fossil energy consumption growth in especially developing countries, such as Turkey, efforts controlling the CO2 emissions are required for both planning the countries’ energy policy and maintaining the international agreement on climate change mitigation. Therefore, forecasting the CO2 emissions is a key factor in adjusting related policies. This article aims at presenting a grey prediction model to forecast the energy-related CO2 emissions in Turkey. Energy-related CO2 emissions for the period of 1965–2012 were considered as the case of this study. Then, emissions in Turkey were forecasted in the upcoming years, up to year 2025. Additionally, the forecasting accuracy was examined by calculating three different evaluation statistics. The results indicated that future energy-related CO2 emissions of Turkey can be successfully forecasted by application of the grey prediction model, and this technique can be used as a potential forecasting tool for CO2 emission.