Abstract
The power grid, which is one of the important infrastructures, has a very challenging issue to stably manage electric power. The Electrical Network Frequency (ENF) which is the supply frequency on the power grid, however, has small variations near a constant frequency over time. In this paper, we studied the feasibility of predicting ENF values to operate the power grid reliably. To forecast ENF values, we analyzed the ENF signals by using auto-correlation and correlation coefficient. Based on the analysis results, we employed two approaches to forecast ENF values using a kernel regression model with correlation coefficient and autoregressive moving average model. To evaluate the accuracy of the proposed prediction algorithm, we experimented ENF data for 29 days in three power grids of the United States; the Eastern, the Western, and the Texas power grid. The results of our suggested methods presented the remarkable performance in forecasting ENF signals.
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