Forecasting the effects of sea-level rise at Chongming Dongtan Nature Reserve in the Yangtze Delta, Shanghai, China

Abstract

Located at the mouth of the Yangtze Estuary, the Chongming Dongtan Nature Reserve is extremely vulnerable to climate change and especially to accelerated sea-level rise. We use a variety of data from remote sensing, an in situ global positioning system (GPS), tidal gauges, nautical charts, geographic spatial analysis modeling and IPCC sea-level rise scenarios to forecast the potential impacts of increased sea level on the coastal wetland habitat at Chongming Dongtan Nature Reserve. The results indicate that around 40% of the terrestrial area of the Dongtan Reserve will be inundated by the year 2100 due to an estimated 0.88 m increase in sea level. In particular, the Scirpus mariqueter communities and bare tidal flats are more vulnerable to sea-level rise. The limitations of this approach and the implication of the results for wetland and ecosystem conservation as well as management are discussed.