Forecasting the Effects of a Negative Income Tax Program

Abstract

This paper outlines a scheme that forecasts the change in net earnings or in hours worked that results from the introduction of a negative income tax (NIT) program. The authors illustrate this scheme by estimating labor supply functions for married men, married women, and single women who participated in the Seattle-Denver Income Maintenance Experiments. These functions are then used to simulate the effects of several NIT programs. The findings suggest that changes in the wage rate of an individual covered by an NIT program result in important changes in the hours of work of the individual's spouse.