Forecasting the Dynamics of Morbidity/Disability of Young People in Ukraine

Drozdova Irina Vladimirovna

doi:10.11648/j.pbs.20170605.15

Abstract

In the current period of health care system reform in Ukraine the study of youth morbidity is particularly important due to the unfavorable demographic conditions in the country: increasing mortality and reducing fertility. In the light of this problem, approaches to the analysis and prediction of morbidity and disability of young people in Ukraine have been developed. The analysis of morbidity dynamics is done with our own design, using software that is the part of the Information technology of disability dynamics analysis. The results of analysis of the monitoring functioning of child morbidity in Ukraine, let the forecast be carried out in a short time series. The prevalence of all diseases In Ukraine for 2008 – 2016 years among adolescents 15–18 years increased by 38,87% (from 17037,06 to 23659,1), morbidity – by 32,32% (from 9444,78 to 12497,6 for 10 thousand population). During this period it took place the reduction of primary disability of people over 18 years among adult and working population. The highest among persons aged 18 years are the numbers of newly recognized disabilities in classes: mental and behavioral disorders (1431), congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal disorders (1196), nervous system diseases (836 cases).

Highlights

In the current period of health care system reform in Ukraine, a complex socio-economic situation of the population, there is a need in deeper study of children and adolescent morbidity, as of the future of the nation and the most important society resource [3, 4]
The analysis of morbidity dynamics is done with using software that is the part of the Information technology of disability dynamics analysis [5]
The proposed approach to the analysis of the dynamics of youth morbidity / disability in Ukraine makes it possible to generalize data on morbidity / disability over a long period of time, set the leading trends during this period, assess the risk of increasing morbidity / disability as the result of various pathologies, but model the data on morbidity / disability for a certain period of time. All this is necessary for further improvement of organizational and methodological work of doctors and the development of targeted measures for the youth morbidity / disability prevention and reduction in Ukraine

Summary

Introduction

In the current period of health care system reform in Ukraine, a complex socio-economic situation of the population, there is a need in deeper study of children and adolescent morbidity, as of the future of the nation and the most important society resource [3, 4]. The strategy identifies major problems in health care system for children and adolescents as well as their solutions, based on the experience of WHO over the past decades [4, 13, 14]. One of its tasks is the development of information technologies for collecting, analyzing, storing and predicting the dynamics of fertility, morbidity, disability and mortality among child population and adapting them to the requirements and standards of the European Union. One of the solutions of this problem may be the development of new approaches to the analysis and forecasting of child, adolescent and individual over 18 morbidity in Ukraine

Methods

Results

Conclusion