Abstract

Successional paludification, a dynamic process that leads to the formation of peatlands, is influenced by climatic factors and site features such as surficial deposits and soil texture. In boreal regions, projected climate change and corresponding modifications in natural fire regimes are expected to influence the paludification process and forest development. The objective of this study was to forecast the development of boreal paludified forests in northeastern North America in relation to climate change and modifications in the natural fire regime for the period 2011–2100. A paludification index was built using static (e.g. surficial deposits and soil texture) and dynamic (e.g. moisture regime and soil organic layer thickness) stand scale factors available from forest maps. The index considered the effects of three temperature increase scenarios (i.e. +1°C, +3°C and +6°C) and progressively decreasing fire cycle (from 300 years for 2011–2041, to 200 years for 2071–2100) on peat accumulation rate and soil organic layer (SOL) thickness at the stand level, and paludification at the landscape level. Our index show that in the context where in the absence of fire the landscape continues to paludify, the negative effect of climate change on peat accumulation resulted in little modification to SOL thickness at the stand level, and no change in the paludification level of the study area between 2011 and 2100. However, including decreasing fire cycle to the index resulted in declines in paludified area. Overall, the index predicts a slight to moderate decrease in the area covered by paludified forests in 2100, with slower rates of paludification. Slower paludification rates imply greater forest productivity and a greater potential for forest harvest, but also a gradual loss of open paludified stands, which could impact the carbon balance in paludified landscapes. Nonetheless, as the thick Sphagnum layer typical of paludified forests may protect soil organic layer from drought and deep burns, a significant proportion of the territory has high potential to remain a carbon sink.

Highlights

  • Successional paludification, a dynamic process that leads to the formation of peatlands, is influenced by climatic factors and site features such as surficial deposits and soil texture

  • In boreal forest ecosystems, successional paludification is described as a dynamic process driven by forest succession between fire events that leads to peat accumulation, and a concomitant thickening of the soil organic layer (SOL), and the formation of waterlogged conditions on a formerly dry mineral soil (Simard et al 2007)

  • Paludification is influenced by climatic factors and permanent site features, such as surficial deposits and soil texture, as well as by natural fire regimes (Lecomte et al 2006; Simard et al 2009; Payette et al 2013)

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Summary

Introduction

Successional paludification, a dynamic process that leads to the formation of peatlands, is influenced by climatic factors and site features such as surficial deposits and soil texture. In boreal regions, projected climate change and corresponding modifications in natural fire regimes are expected to influence the paludification process and forest development. According to the most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC 2013) This changing climate is expected to increase drought severity in boreal regions (Girardin and Mudelsee 2008), and to Lafleur et al Forest Ecosystems (2015): influence the natural fire regime, resulting in an increase of fire severity and burn rate (Flannigan et al 2005; de Groot et al 2009; Bergeron et al 2010; van Bellen et al 2010). Because boreal peatlands represent important carbon reservoirs (it is estimated that boreal peatlands, including paludified forests, store 455 Pg of carbon, i.e. approximately 15% of the Earth’s terrestrial carbon (Gorham 1991; Lavoie et al 2005)) any modification to the fire cycle may have important consequences on the carbon cycle and the global climate

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