Abstract
The threat on health sector has massive impacts, and one of them is on business internal management as the main factor of producers to consider design of their products. During pandemic, honey is categorized as food supplement. In a certain phase, when the demand upon honey is high, the price tends to be unstable due to an imbalance between supply and demand. Complexities of consumer during pandemics effect on food security system. Unpreparedness of the producers in facing the phenomenon of panic buying and stockpile causes scarcity. Objective of the research was forecasting the demand of honey following the second pandemic wave and supported SMEs to create adaptive strategy to face scarcity. Method of the research used secondary data and survey in the field, which was ended by FGD to decide strategy of the producer to minimize scarcity. Data analysis used MSE (Mean Squared Error) with exponential smoothing. Results of the research showed that the method of alpha exponential 5% has minimum error, which forecast that in December 2021, the demand of propolis honey may reduce after the 2nd wave of Covid in Indonesia and approach to normal forecasting system. The accuracy with exponential method is higher and may facilitate the producers to provide products when fear contagion and panic buying take place. Contribution of analysis result toward strategy of the producers is providing estimation that maximum amount of availability increases no more than 2 times of the real demand of the consumers when panic buying occurs. The most needed strategy is setting the timeline in the projection of consumer journey. This alternative is relevant to fear contagion phenomenon because it contributes to socio-psychology of the consumers in deciding to buy supplement of honey product. Novelty of this research is examining the frequency wave of product purchase intensity of the consumer journey with Covid-19 phenomenon.
Highlights
Complexities of global economic pillar as a result of Covid-19 pandemics affect on stability of food product prices in developing countries as in Indonesia
Unstable economic conditions have relevant to the consumer purchasing power against food products, which establish market system toward livestock products that become elastic to income, when the consumers’s income increase, the consumers’ demand for livestock products will increase as well, the primary foods as the main priority that cannot be substituted by other products, and non-primary foods that are conditional such as honey products, which being the main concern of consumers as immunomodulator during pandemics
Consumers choose to increase honey supply because of high demand of this product during pandemics. Such significant change toward health awareness has established psychology of the consumers to increase purchasing with the concern of not being able to fulfill the product in the future because of high demand and anxiousness that the product might be too expensive along with the scarcity phenomena in the market as more consumers purchase the products and their anxieties if it is followed by the decrease of purchasing power because of crisis
Summary
Complexities of global economic pillar as a result of Covid-19 pandemics affect on stability of food product prices in developing countries as in Indonesia. The perspective changes of consumption patterns before and during pandemics are significantly different It triggers the dynamic of supply and demand and tobe susceptible to scarcity and price volatility, as well as the decrease in producer performance because of the decrease in production system. If there is no appropriate forecast scenario in facing the dynamics of supply and high demand, fluctuation in product prices and food sufficiency become unstable Such change causes the market conditions are abnormal; inequality of supply and demand causes scarce and expensive products, and threatens human health, so that it requires a forecast strategy and project the demand toward honey as a trend of new necessity and become the priority of the consumer in every situation when facing the pandemics. The forecast using the exponential smoothing method is based on the formula below (Gaspersz, 2001)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callMore From: International Journal of Current Science Research and Review
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
