Forecasting the Danger of the Forest Fire Season in North-West Patagonia, Argentina

Abstract

AbstractAn average of 1300 forest fires are officially reported in Argentina annually, triggered either by natural or intentional causes. Once an outbreak has started, topographic and vegetation (fuel) conditions and the weather situation determine the fire behavior. The general evolution of fire danger can be monitored through the Fire Weather Index (FWI), part of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS). This indicator was successfully implemented in Argentina since the beginning of 2000. It is based on temperature, relative humidity, wind intensity, and precipitation. Among its advantages, it allows evaluating the possibility of fire ignition, intensity, and spreading. The objective of this work is to achieve a characterization of the danger of the different forest fire seasons in the northern Argentinean Patagonian mountain range, based on Bariloche station data, using the FWI and find a method to forecast the danger. For this purpose, the index was related to atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature patterns that dominate the region before and during the fire season, using the correlation method. It allowed defining predictors that were used to generate some statistical models, to predict the dangerousness of the future seasons. Sea surface temperatures, anomalies of wind, and the Antarctic Oscillation were the best predictors for this purpose. Some derived statistical models are very useful tools to improve the decision-making regarding the coming fire seasons in this particular area. The incorporation of non-linear techniques seems to improve the efficiency of linear regression models.KeywordsForest firesPredictionFire weather indexArgentinean PatagoniaCirculation patterns